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Sunday, November 15, 2009

STOCK NEWS OF INDIA

*RBI's 2Q FY2010 monetary policy maintains status quo in rates
The RBI maintained a status quo with respect to all policy rates in its 2QFY2010 monetary policy. More important, in our view, was the marked change in the tone of the policy. The policy did sound more hawkish, emphasizing concerns about inflation and describing the measures implemented as the first phase of an 'exit' from the extraordinary monetary accommodation of the past year. But this needs to be viewed in the context of the evolving dynamics of growth, inflation and liquidity.

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*Indian auto sector has made all the right moves in this fiscal and must maintain the momentum
28 October 2009 | Traditionally, Id and Diwali festivals augur a positive period for the auto industry in India, as buyer sentiments tend to go up amid the pomp and joy of the season. Fiscal year 2009 was a dismal exception, as automakers struggled between October and December 2008. This is all the more reason to look at the current monthly and quarterly growth rates with a pinch of salt. The Q3 results for FY10 are likely to look spectacular, though they are marked improvements from the January-April 2009. Take Ford Motor, for instance. This September, Ford India announced an impressive 50% year-on-year (y-o-y) sales growth in Sept ’09. It sold 3,405 units as against 2,273 units in Sept ’08. Without taking anything away from the American car maker, the growth in September over the same month in 2008 is not as staggering as the 50% y-o-y rate suggests. Ford continues to have a less than 2% market share in the Indian car market. But what is truly more heartening for Ford is that its recovery and ascent in India is now well and truly on. This is visible in its 38% month-on-month increase over Aug ’09. On a quarterly basis, it clocked a 24% rise over the same period in 2008. Now the real battle begins as it has launched its small-car called Ford Figo that will be up against top dogs Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai.

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*Indian 2QFY2010 Monetary Policy Preview
27 October 2009 | In our opinion, the RBI is likely to maintain status quo with respect to policy rates in the upcoming policy, reiterating that its priority remains growth rather than inflation at this juncture. An important thing to watch out for will be RBI's take on the potential acceleration of forex inflows going forward, and the resultant problems of high liquidity, the appreciating rupee as well as rising asset prices and demand-side pressures that the country may have to face all over again. Such inflows may necessitate CRR hikes in subsequent policies though, over the next 4-6 quarters at least, such hikes will, in our view, only manage to sterilize the excess forex-driven liquidity in the system, rather than stifling growth by choking off M3. Overall, for the upcoming policy, we expect the RBI to maintain an accommodative stance, as the key priority for the economy remains keeping interest rates low until a broad-based revival in domestic demand is firmly rooted.

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*Indian monetary policy 2009-10 second quarter review
27 October 2009 | The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased statutory liquidity ratio by 100 basis point from 24% to 25 %, effective from November 8, 2009. SCBs (scheduled commercial banks) are currently maintaining SLR investments at 27.6% of their Net Demand Time Liability (NDTL); as such the increase in SLR will not impact the liquidity position of the banking system and credit to private sector. Meanwhile CRR, repo and reverse repo rates have been left unchanged.

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*India: After the recession gloom it is time for a good run for the branded retail sector
27 October 2009 | In India ‘retail’ is not a new word. But there is still something very new about the sector today in terms of the shift from roadside pavement retail to small shops, from departmental stores to the huge state-of-the-art malls. Today two businessmen might be producing similar goods and have same-sized balance sheets, but if one does a lot of advertising and publicity and the other doesn’t, it is the former who emerges with a ‘brand’. Yes, we are certainly living in the age of branding. Whether you buy Lux soap from a kirana shop or a supermarket – you are ultimately buying the brand. Branding has today transformed into multi-faceted stores in shopping malls, exclusive standalone stores as well as high-end boutiques, which burn a hole in your pocket. The Indian retail market saw a slump following the global recession and is now recovering, emerging as one of the top attractive investment destinations. Currently, the share of retail to the country’s GDP is about 12%, which is estimated to rise to 22% by 2010. Within this market, apparels form the second largest segment in terms of value, growing annually at the rate of 10%. With the opening up of the economy and globalization, India’s retail industry has witnessed a huge change over the years and with FDI now allowing up to 51% in single brand retail, the demographics of this industry have substantially improved and are further expected to shine.

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